Ebola Best and Worst-Case Scenarios

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Good morning:

Jury selection continues today in the Michael Dunn retrial.

Crane and I are sitting across from each other in a McDonald’s where we are enjoying free coffee and WiFi. We have reached our destination and we will get hooked up to the internet tomorrow afternoon. We will resume regular posting late tomorrow or Friday.

Crane just posted an article at Firedoglake updating readers on the Ebola epidemic. Read it below.

Meanwhile, jury selection continues today in the Michael Dunn retrial.

Ebola Best and Worst-Case Scenarios

By Crane-Station

On Tuesday, the CDC issued a report based on an epidemiological model, that projected a top-range (worst-case) estimate of Ebola cases in West Africa- what the number could reach – by January 20, 2015 – as well as a best-case scenario. Voa News explains:

Between 550,000 and 1.4 million people in West Africa could be infected with the Ebola virus by January 20, 2015, according to a report issued on Tuesday by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The top range of the estimate, 1.4 million, assumes that the number of cases officially cited so far, 5864 according to the count kept by the World Health Organization, is significantly underreported, and that it is likely that 2.5 times as many cases, or nearly 20,000, have in fact occurred.

The CDC epidemiological model is based on August numbers, and do not take into consideration the recent US government announcement that it will send 3000 troops into Africa as part of the Ebola relief effort. The best-case projection involves getting 70 percent of the patients into facilities where risk of transmission is reduced, as well as burying the dead safely, which could potentially bring the epidemic to an end by January 20.

Extensive, immediate actions- such as those already stated- can bring the epidemic to a tipping point to start a rapid decline in cases,” CDC said in a statement.

Voa News is also reporting that in Liberia, the number of Ebola cases has been doubling every few weeks, posing a threat to the social, economic and political fabric of the country, as it impacts forestry, mining and agriculture.

In the meantime, experimental Ebola drugs will be tested in West Africa. Ebola is an RNA viral infection with no current cure. Details regarding the testing are “under discussion.” Apparently, three drug companies are working with WHO, to develop fast-track protocols.

Also, since Ebola does spread through bodily fluids, and since it can be transmitted from a dying and dead victim to the living, safe burial practices are a concern. Scientific American explains:

Unlike most pathogens, which cannot survive long on a corpse, however, Ebola does remain infectious after a person dies– for how long remains unknown. WHO notes that men who have survived the disease can still transmit the virus through their semen for up to seven weeks after recovery, providing a glimpse into the longevity of this potent pathogen.

In July, Smithsonian addressed the issue of culture, burial practices, and generalized mistrust that occurs, when strangers from another culture and country come to Africa, to retrieve, bag and disinfect loved ones, who are victims of Ebola:

Telling people that they can’t bury their family members according to tradition can be agonizing, and in order to reassure the living and prevent further infections, health workers follow strict guidelines when disposing of bodies. The WHO’s typical burial guidelines for emergency situations extort (sic) workers to prioritize the living over the dead and discourage mass burials, which can be incredibly demoralizing.

References:
CDC – Ebola- Ebola Virus Disease- What’s New

New Modeling Tool for Response to Ebola Virus Disease

16 Responses to Ebola Best and Worst-Case Scenarios

  1. ay2z says:

    TODAY, while on the website for the Dunn trial, flipped to their main page and this headline appears:

    “CDC confirms first case of Ebola virus in U.S.
    WFAA 8 News, Dallas 5:35 p.m. EDT September 30, 2014”

    http://www.firstcoastnews.com/story/news/nation/2014/09/30/cdc-ebola-case-texas/16496649/

  2. Malisha says:

    OT, but see this article on the Koch Brothers:

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/inside-the-koch-brothers-toxic-empire-20140924?page=2

    Is there anybody who does not know that Koch has about a dozen empoyees who make $100,000/year to write comments on blogs?

    • J4TMinATL says:

      Just read…..Insane.

      • Malisha says:

        And this is what we live with. Every. Day.

        • Malisha says:

          I’m thinking about a new “index.” A new way to look at our society and a new way to think about what we’re doing/seeing.

          I call it: the Level of Acceptable Criminality LAC.

          One’s LAC score is much higher if one is a well-born white male.

          One’s LAC score is a negative number if one is a young African American male (that is, certain kinds of non-criminal behavior — such as wearing hoodies or texting jovial comments or holding a cup of coffee while saluting — are used to measure the criminality score)

          One’s LAC score depends heavily on how profitable various criminal activities have been, so that a person who commits shop-lifting and profits little or nothing has a higher score than someone who commits negligent homicide of hundreds of people while reaping millions in profits.

          etc.

          • MKX says:

            I see another way to look at Koch heads.

            Their philosophy puts private property on an altar that his higher than a human.

            So any crimes against humans committed under the guise of increasing the value of property are not really that serious or should be ignored altogether.

            But woe to the man who does something to property.

            With that kind of mindset, it is easy to see how the Koch worshippers feel that Brown, the possible shoplifter of a couple of bucks worth of cigars, deserved to be executed wherein any attempt by the masses to bring Koch Industries to justice is just “the takers” being jealous.

  3. Malisha says:

    The real story behind the death of John Crawford (toy gun in Walmart) really reverberates with what is a persistent sociolegal problem in the US: Disturbed, hostile, probably impotent men calling the police to have young Black males (or pretty Black females) rousted by police or outright killed on the word of a 911 (or non-Emergency) complaint about perceived dangerousness or unapproved sexuality. A young Black male will be reported for “waving around” a toy gun and allegedly “pointing it at children.” A young Black female will be reported for public sex or for disobedience. What is this about?

    Let me answer my own question. White men who feel (perhaps justifiably so) angry and unloved can call the police “on” someone they presume is “inferior” and thus get their jollies seeing an underling abused at the behest of the “superior” 911-calling Merkin.

    It’s power. Plain and simple. NO DIFFERENT from the power of the white over the free OR enslaved Black prior to 1865. He who can demonstrate no power over anybody else (not even Shellie!) can always reach for power over an anonymous African American who the police will presume is a criminal.

    It’s punks increasing their status by tattling.

    • MKX says:

      It is also self, centered callous disregard for the humanity of another person.

      Knowing how cops behave, I would never call 9-11 on a person who I might suspect of a wrong doing because I put that person at risk of injury or worse. So I would need very strong evidence of a wrong doing.

      As Marley told Scrooge, “mankind is our business”.

      The punks are also scared of the black boogie man they made up in their mind and it makes them feel bad about themselves. So any way they can hide behind a door and do harm to a black male is A-OK to them.

      Freddy McGreggor hit it out of the park with this song. The punks know that the did, do, say and said bad things about black people and are afraid of revenge or judgment coming to get them aka Bobby Bobylon.

      • Malisha says:

        I was driving to the hospital to visit a friend in intensive care when a big red Chrysler “floated” into me from the left lane doing 65+. She then pulled left and I pulled in behind her to see/memorize her plate. So she pulled over & so did I. She talked like a madwoman and although she was accepting responsibility (blaming her swerve on a car to her left doing the same to her), I thought she might change her story, and I was on hold 20 min. w/insurance, srill no response. Also I was not totally sure that
        (a) I was not hurt and/or (b) she would not say that SHE was hurt; so I wanted to call the police. But then I realized that calling the police COULD end up with any number of horrifying experiences including but not limited to violent death. So I skipped it.

    • Disappointed says:

      Malisha that 911 calls had more lies than Fogen’s 911 call. I feel like that idiot should be charged. 2 people died in that store because of his blatant lies. I have read that he won’t be. The police should have tried harder to figure out what was going before killing John. That’s their job. Ohio is an open carry state, he could have been well within his rights to carry. You fonts say drop the gun and in the next second open fire. Jeez. Thank God South Carolina got it right for firing that idiot trigger happy trooper. Oh and charging him.

  4. Malisha says:

    To me, his reign was really not spectacular.

  5. J4TMinATL says:

    Wow, Attorney General Eric Holder resigns.

  6. Two sides to a story says:

    PS – The new ebola thing does make me wonder if the international corporatocracy has found a way to make Ebola spread faster and wider, considering what was known about it in the 90s. Africa is a relatively undeveloped continent with untapped resources, ripe for plundering by the 1%. And of course they can also goad the rest of us with fear of it.

  7. Two sides to a story says:

    Scary stuff, Ebola. I read a sizzling nonfiction book about it in the mid- to late ’90s – don’t recall the title and don’t have my list of books read handy. I do recall that they thought it wasn’t easily spread in terms of a pandemic because it isn’t spread through the air like influenza.

    On the off-topic side, ole Fogen is busy trying to link the tragedy of his making with other tragedies on his new blog. He oughta take up some creative endeavor that makes him dig a little deeper into his psyche. Of course he’s nuzzling the breast of his rightwing supporters. ; /

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